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SUMMIT COUNTY POPULATION INFORMATION

Last Updated: May 2008 

For further information regarding population information for Summit County (“the County”), contact Kate Berg at 970-668-4204 or kateb@co.summit.co.us.  Population estimates and data are reviewed and updated by the Planning Department periodically and are subject to change.

The following is intended to provide basic demographic information on the County’s estimated permanent resident population, population growth rates, and basic characteristics of the permanent resident population.  A list of links to other “related demographic web sites” is also provided.  These links could provide more detailed information on the County’s population or other demographics than provided below.

Permanent Resident Population Estimates

The following table provides an overview of the distribution of the estimated permanent resident population in the County.  The population estimates are based on a methodology using Certificate of Occupancy (CO) permits issued by the County and towns, and vacancy rates, population per household and cohort survival estimates determined by the State Demography Office (“State Demographer”) in the Colorado Division of Local Government. 

(Click here to view a locator map, depicting the four planning basins, and six incorporated towns within the County.)

Based on the above table, the County has recently exceeded a permanent resident population of 28,000 and is nearing 30,000.  This is a 20.2% increase in fulltime residents since 2000 or roughly 2.9% growth in permanent population per year since 2000.  Approximately 58% of the permanent residents in the County live in unincorporated areas (properties located outside of town boundaries).

Note that other sources for estimating the County’s permanent resident population can be slightly different than represented above.  For example, the State Demographer or respective towns could have different estimates, based on the use of divergent methodologies, and minor discrepancies in occupancy rates and population per household information, which continually change.  Therefore, the County works in cooperation with the State Demographer and towns in helping to determine the above estimates as well as keeping them updated.

Permanent Resident Population Growth – History, Trends & Projections

1970 – Present:

From 1970 – 1980 the County was considered to be the fastest growing county in the country, with a 232% increase in the permanent resident population.  The following decade, from 1980 – 1990, the County experienced slower growth, as the increase was 45.6%.  Between 1990 and 2000 the population nearly doubled, growing from 12,881 to 23,548 residents, an increase of 82.8%.  This ranked the County again as one of the fastest growing counties in the State of Colorado and the country, as it grew almost three times as fast as the state average and eight times faster than the national average. 

From 2000 to 2007, as demonstrated in the table below, the County added approximately 4,748 residents, which represents a growth rate of approximately 20.2%, or 2.9% growth per year.  In comparison, annual growth rates from 1990 through 2000 were higher, averaging approximately 7.2% per year.  Nevertheless, from 2000 – 2006, the State Demographer’s estimates show that the County was again ranked among the top ten fastest growing counties in the state (#8).  Moreover, from 2001 – 2002, the State Demographer’s estimates indicate that the County was ranked as the fastest growing county in the state (in terms of percent change), with the permanent resident population growing 10.1% in one year. 

Summit County – Permanent Resident Population Growth

Source:  U.S. Census Bureau, State Demographer, and Summit County
Planning Department.

2008 Population Projections and Beyond:

Looking forward 15 - 20 years, it is certain that some amount of population growth is inevitable.  Per Jonathan Schechter, Executive Director of the Charture Institute, Summit County and similar resort communities (including Eagle, Pitkin, Routt, and San Miguel counties) are growing and continue to change more rapidly than the nation as a whole.  As noted by Schechter, factors enabling more and more people to move to resort based communities include: 

• Improved technology, and the increased ability for tele-commuting. 
• Broader, more diverse economic considerations (e.g. personal income generated from more diverse sources including a growing percentage from investments).
• Changes in transportation (i.e. the increased ease of air travel and freight).
• America’s values and customs, which are becoming increasingly aligned with what resort communities have to offer (e.g., healthy environment, abundant recreational opportunities). 

Although a certain amount of growth is inevitable, the difficult questions to answer are “How much growth will occur?” and “How quickly will it occur?”  Projecting the County’s permanent resident population into the future is a challenging endeavor, which can be described as both an art and a science.  Population projections are approximations determined based on the best information available at the time, and can be easily affected by factors that are constantly fluctuating.  Examples of factors that contribute to the variability of population projections, include:

• The assumptions that are used change (i.e. estimated occupancy rates, estimated number of persons per household, etc.).
• The transient nature of the County’s permanent resident population.
• The large number of second homes/investment properties in the County.
• The implications of aging baby boomers potentially converting their second homes into permanent residences. 

Moreover, population projections can be misleading, depending upon whether the projected population growth is described in terms of percent change or numeric change.  In some cases, as a population continues to grow, the percent change may decrease each year, despite the fact that the same number (or greater number) of people are being added each year.  For instance the table below shows that, from 2015 – 2020, 4,758 new residents are projected, which would represent a growth rate of 13.3%.  During the following five-year time period (2020 – 2025), 4,779 new residents are projected, which is approximately 20 more people than the preceding timeframe.  However, since the starting population would be higher in 2020, this would be a smaller percent change (11.8% growth compared to 13.3% growth from 2015-2020). 

According to population projections prepared by the State Demographer, the growth rates experienced during the 1970s, 80s and 90s are not expected to continue.  Per the State Demographer’s projections for population growth from 2000 to 2010, the County’s population was expected to grow 33.8% (7,950 residents).  As shown in the table above, it is estimated that approximately 4,748 new residents have been added to the County’s population from 2000 – 2007.  If this growth rate (approximately 678 people per year) continues over the next three years, it appears that the County’s population in 2010 will be slightly lower than projected (approximately 1,100 fewer people).  Looking to the year 2025, the State Demographer projects that the County’s permanent resident population will grow by 92.9 percent (21,877 residents) between 2000 and 2025, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.9% per year.

Summit County – Projected Permanent Resident Population Growth

Source:  U.S. Census Bureau and State Demographer.

2000 – 2010 Permanent Resident Population Growth Trends In a Nutshell:

Below is a breakdown of population growth rates that summarizes the estimated and projected population changes that could occur during this decade (2000 – 2010).  These numbers are based on annual population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the State Demographer since the 2000 U.S. Census: 

• 7,950 new permanent residents in ten years (2000 – 2010)
• 795 new permanent residents per year
• 66 new permanent residents per month
• 2 new permanent residents per day

As mentioned above, these projections could be overestimated, as it appears that the County’s 2010 population will be less than projected if current growth trends continue through 2010.  But considering the factors discussed above (e.g., the transient community, large number of second homes, aging baby boomers, broader economic considerations, etc.), population growth rates could quite possibly change between now and 2010. 

Basic Characteristics of Summit County’s Permanent Resident Population

According to the 2000 U.S. Census, the County’s permanent resident population is young, with a median age of 30.8 years, compared to the state median age of 32.5 years.  The 2000 Census data also showed that about 45% of the County’s permanent residents are between the ages of 25 to 44.  The State Demographer projects that the County’s median age will increase to 37.5 in 2010 and 42.9 in 2020, indicative of an aging population.

An increase in ethnic diversity in the entire region is also evident in the 2000 Census data.  The change in total non-white population in the County (Hispanic or Latino) increased 9.8% during the last decade (1990 – 2000).  Between 1990 and 2000 Hispanics (any race) increased 613.9%, or 1,983 residents.  Nearly 50% of Hispanics ranged from ages 20 to 34.  Ethnic diversification of the permanent resident population is expected to continue, which will influence the demographic make-up of the County. 

Demographic Related Web Sites

The following websites can provide more detailed demographic information on the County, State of Colorado or Nation:

U.S. Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/

U.S. Census Bureau – American FactFinder
http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

Colorado Division of Local Government State Demography Office
http://www.dola.colorado.gov/dlg/demog/index.html

E-Podunk
http://www.epodunk.com/

Northwest Colorado Council of Governments
http://www.nwc.cog.co.us/

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